Does the Fall of Roe Save Democrats in 2022?

A week ago, Democrats were headed to a terrible midterm defeat. They would be destroyed in November by a comet strike which would cripple their ability to conduct more offensives, leaving them prone to an even bigger defeat in 2024 if Trump stayed away. The year was proceeding exactly as I said it would last Christmas.

Then came an unprecedented leak of a draft Supreme Court opinion which appeared to overturn Roe v. Wade and the energy shifted. What does this mean?

A week ago, the 2022 midterms were about covid hysteria, schools/parents’ rights, crime, the border, anti-wokeness, and an economy on the brink of recession with the worst inflation in 40 years. The results are in: Brandon is the worst President in at least a century. Everyone knows it, too, despite the corporate media propaganda apparatus.

Brandon’s disastrous presidency motivated a powerful, true majority coalition in response, consisting of the white working class, white college men, angry anti-covidian/anti-woke moms, a rapidly realigning Hispanic electorate, and a growing number of Asians fed up with educational discrimination and crime in their neighborhoods.

The mood of this new majority summed up in a few seconds:

The Supreme Court leak threatens this.

To be clear, this doesn’t mean that Democrats will save themselves this November. They’re still going to lose both Houses of Congress, almost all competitive governor races (unless Republicans nominate lunatics), and downballot races.

What concerns me is not victory, but how big the victory is. To put it bluntly, Democrats must be massacred this year. They must be punished as badly as possible for their conduct over the last two years or we will live under some form of Chinese-inspired biomedical fascism forever. It’s that simple.

Roe’s fall won’t change the basic equation, but it might prove the “culminating point” of our current offensive and limit our ability to punish Democrats in the way they must be punished. What is a culminating point, you ask?

Culminating Point of Victory

In book 7, chapter 5 of his On War, Carl von Clausewitz said:

THE success of the attack is the result of a present superiority of force, it being understood that the moral as well as physical forces are included. In the preceding chapter we have shown that the power of the attack gradually exhausts itself; possibly at the same time the superiority may increase, but in most cases it diminishes. The assailant buys up prospective advantages which are to be turned to account hereafter in negotiations for peace; but, in the meantime, he has to pay down on the spot for them a certain amount of his military force. If a preponderance on the side of the attack, although thus daily diminishing, is still maintained until peace is concluded, the object is attained.— There are strategic attacks which have led to an immediate peace— but such instances are rare; the majority, on the contrary, lead only to a point at which the forces remaining are just sufficient to maintain a defensive, and to wait for peace. —Beyond that point the scale turns, there is a reaction; the violence of such a reaction is commonly much greater than the force of the blow. This we call the culminating point of the attack.— As the object of the attack is the possession of the enemy’s territory, it follows that the advance must continue till the superiority is exhausted; this cause, therefore, impels us towards the ultimate object, and may easily lead us beyond it.— If we reflect upon the number of the elements of which an equation of the forces in action is composed, we may conceive how difficult it is in many cases to determine which of two opponents has the superiority on his side. Often all hangs on the silken thread of imagination.

Everything then depends on discovering the culminating point by the fine tact of judgment. Here we come upon a seeming contradiction. The defence is stronger than the attack; therefore we should think that the latter can never lead us too far, for as long as the weaker form remains strong enough for what is required, the stronger form ought to be still more so.

This passage perfectly sums up the war in Ukraine so far. It also sums up the danger in our political war.

Up to last week, the new, emerging coalition of normal people was winning on all fronts. As I said here:

From the covidian rout in February, to Ron DeSantis sending a shiver of cold fear down the spine of woke capital for the first time, to Elon Musk buying Twitter and ending its ability to be used as a woke war machine, we have been victorious on all fronts. With strong resources and majority support, we had not nearly reached our culminating point.

But if abortion is a major issue in the election, we will reach our culminating point faster, and do less damage than we should.

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Have we Reached Our Culminating Point?

The objection here will be that abortion doesn’t affect much because most people don’t care about it. The one demographic that does is already the core Democratic base – white college women, who Democrats can’t gain much more with. This is mostly true and it is why Democrats can’t save themselves from a significant defeat.

Significantly, Roe’s fall might shift Hispanics further to the right, which will mitigate or erase the increased energy among white college women to defend it.

Yet, we aren’t talking about the outcome, but our culminating point, which will determine how big the victory is. We want to be able to keep attacking and determine peace on our own terms, rather than reach a point where we can only maintain a defense of what we’ve already gained, and then “wait for peace.”

World War 1 dig in trench

The key swing groups here will be those white college men and angry anti-covidian/anti-woke moms. If they’re unchanged in their voting intentions, we have not reached our culminating point.

I reiterate that the good news is most people just don’t care that much about abortion. The people that do are often on the right. Glenn Youngkin won abortion voters in Virginia last year, for example. On the other hand, that came when far fewer people were paying attention to abortion. Since whatever you pay attention to gets magnified in importance (see Robert Cialdini’s Pre-Suasion), there is a possibility that the advantage on the issue shifts to Democrats with Roe’s fall and the consequent increased attention abortion gets.

The issue itself would still be relatively minor amid the background of economic weakness, rising crime, “health” fascism, and woke craziness, but it might just be prominent enough to shave a couple of points off the Republican mood. Let’s say that the generic ballot goes to R+5-6 from R+6-8.

That doesn’t sound like a lot, but each point makes a big difference in the amount of House seats won and it could mean the difference between 52 and 54 Senate seats. This is what I mean by a culminating point. How will those anti-woke white college men and angry moms react when abortion rises in importance by the increased attention? That is the key question. I don’t have the answer for it yet.

There is one final consideration.

Do Democrats Culminate First?

The fall of Roe would give Democrats an in, but not the ability to launch a broad offensive. They can regain some minor territory, but that would be it. How likely is it for Democrats to know this, though? Let’s turn to that most famous of all Sun Tzu quotes:

Hence the saying: If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle. (III.18)

How likely is it that Democrats will understand this, especially under their current leadership? Not likely.

The days of “safe, legal, and rare” are long over. Theoretically, Democrats could talk about “women losing a right,” which you know would be highly persuasive, if you’re familiar with Cialdini’s scarcity principle in Influence. My guess, though, is that Democrats will insist on an absolute right to an abortion up to birth, because, as Thomas Sowell would have predicted in Vision of the Anointed, abortion has become a categorical item for them. Abortion is good and no abortion is evil. That’s it.

In fact, we saw a preview in Ohio. JD Vance, the newly-minted Republican Senate candidate, responded in the appropriate way to a likely Democratic tactic.

Democrats will also likely overreach with their response to the decision itself. We already see them doxxing and attempting to intimidate the Supreme Court Justices, harass Catholics at worship, and generally cause mayhem in the streets. And who will be leading these efforts? The same “overeducated” white women that every other demographic can’t stand, naturally.

With all of this in mind, it is possible, and probably likely, that Democrats reach their culminating point first in the wake of Roe’s fall.

Conclusion

This is a complication I would have preferred not to happen this year, but the die is now cast and the Rubicon crossed. If Roe stays, it will look like the highest court in the land succumbed to mob intimidation. In this way, the leaker doomed her own cause.

If I were advising Republicans, I would tell them to avoid making this an election about abortion and let Democrats culminate on the issue first. Though most of the country wants abortion to be safe, legal, and rare, it is not a passionate majority, and the pro-abortion side is actually more extreme, these days.

Republicans just need to stick to what they have been doing and appeal to the emerging majority coalition.

Stumped previewed this emerging majority coalition in 2016. It has mostly been accurate, especially about “lost” voters. You can read it here.

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