Forget the 2022 midterm shelling. Democrats are racing to an even bigger disaster in 2024. You can recover from getting bombed, but what happens when you get sucked down a black hole? That’s where Joe Biden, the worst American leader in a century, is taking his party, no matter what the polling grift is trying to tell you in the summer of 2022.
I normally don’t like making presidential predictions this early, but even now, a pattern has clearly emerged. With that in mind, let’s look at The Keys to the White House.
What are the Keys?
The Keys to the White House is a presidential prediction model created by Allan Lichtman and Vladimir Kellis-Borok. The model poses 13 statements, or “keys,” based on the idea that the public is not easily persuaded by campaigning or advertising and mostly bases its voting decisions on the performance of the incumbent party in the White House during the current presidential term. When five or fewer of these statements are false, the incumbent party will retain control of the presidency in the next election. When six or more are false, the challenging party will win.
There are limitations to the keys. The keys cannot predict what the electoral map and popular vote margin will look like or what the downballot results will be. They can only tell you who will win the White House. Additionally, some of the keys are notoriously ambiguous. Allan Lichtman himself is also a deranged leftist. Nevertheless, he has successfully predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1984 except in 2000, a contest that was decided by 537 votes in Florida. The Keys to the White House are therefore a useful shortcut to determine the national environment, which I included as the “pendulum” factor in Stumped and stipulated was the most important consideration in the model, since it determined the political marketplace that candidates would need to appeal to.
I myself used the keys to predict what would happen in 2020 that June, along the exact same lines that Lichtman made his prediction with a month after me (seven negative keys). To be honest, I wavered on this at the end, thinking I saw some contradictory data, but I now realize that I was letting my desire to avoid a Brandon presidency interfere with my earlier, correct prediction.
But the Brandon presidency sure has been a disaster, hasn’t it? So what do the Keys to the White House say now?
By the beginning of 2022, Joe Biden’s bubble had popped and he was already a lame duck. Think George W. Bush post-Hurricane Katrina. He already had five negative keys to his name.
Joe Biden’s Five Confirmed Negative Keys
1. Bad midterm
Glenn Youngkin’s victory in Virginia showed the writing on the wall. The electorate had moved 10 points right in a year. It has moved further right since, as Brandon’s approval ratings now stand at a record low for a president at this point in his term – and WITH low unemployment.
My midterm prediction stands at a net gain of 30-35 seats for Republicans in the House and 3-4 in the Senate (despite some terrible Republican candidates), but there’s still time for more if those unemployment numbers go up or new covid mandates rear their ugly heads, as blue Los Angeles just flirted with. Either way, this is going to be a far worse midterm for Democrats overall than Republicans suffered in 2018.
2. Weak long-term economy
Brandon and his party’s dragging their feet on ending covid hysteria and returning to normalcy in the spring-summer of 2021, as well as their myopic, arrogant war on American energy, guaranteed that there would be no restoration of the pre-covid Trump economy anytime soon. Instead, we got 40-year high inflation. Real per capita economic growth (which is what this key is based on) will not equal or exceed that of the Obama or Trump years by 2024, meaning it will be negative.
The war in Ukraine made the situation worse, but this negative key was guaranteed before February 2022, and now, there’s officially a recession, despite the Orwellian comedy we saw this week from the usual suspects in trying to redefine it.
3. Foreign/military failure
This key is one of the more ambiguous ones, but the withdrawal from Afghanistan must qualify. It was a humiliation in American military history. Although Biden’s approval ratings were declining because of his insistence on retaining covid mandates past the summer, the Afghanistan withdrawal sent them into a permanent downward spiral. It was, simply, the moment that the American people lost confidence in their leader – and on a bipartisan, broad, basis, not just a party-line one.
4. No major foreign/military success
With the Brandon administration’s humiliating conduct of foreign policy (and not just in Afghanistan), we can safely assume that this key will remain negative into 2024.
5. Uncharismatic incumbent
No debate here. Charisma is changeable (an idea that Lichtman would agree with) but Brandon won’t be changing for the better.
These are the five negative keys Brandon will definitively have in 2024. So if the election were held today, the keys model would still predict his party’s retention of the White House, despite his administration’s abysmal performance. But the election is not being held today, and as 2022 has progressed, it’s become clear that at least two more keys have a likely chance of turning negative.
The Probably Negative Keys
6. Incumbent seeking reelection
Incumbency is a powerful quality, and all else being equal, incumbents of all kinds usually get reelected. I have no doubt that Brandon’s ego demands a reelection, and his wife wants to remain First Lady. Unfortunately for them, he’s decomposing in front of our eyes. Back during the basement campaign of 2020, they and their party could somewhat pretend otherwise. Indeed, it was dismaying how successful the act was. There’s no possibility of that now, because we’ve seen it in action, and it is getting worse. Brandon is even worse in July than he was at the start of 2022.
For health reasons alone, the idea that Brandon will be able to run as an incumbent in 2024 grows dimmer every day. Meanwhile, his own party – seeing how he’s leading them down a black hole – is increasingly insistent on pushing him out. That they’re willing to trade the incumbency key in exchange for hope that other keys won’t go negative in the absence of his “leadership” shows us how desperate their situation is.
7. No primary contest
When Brandon was out of the country a couple of weeks ago, Gavin Newsom strolled into the White House. The cunning Governor of California sent an effective, unmistakable signal by doing so. The Governor of Illinois, J.B. Pritzker, has also been signaling presidential ambitions. One cannot expect that Kamala Harris, just a Brandon heartbeat away, will stay silent, either. Some of the “progressives” in Congress, who are disappointed with Brandon because they somehow think he’s not far left enough, may also find it difficult to resist the temptation. A run for President is good for brand-building, if nothing else, and this may also attract some out-of-left-field candidates who run from the center, too.
The point is that Brandon’s age and unpopularity already have the sharks from his own party circling around him. Challenging an incumbent president is usually a suicide mission, but Brandon is likely to get contenders, as most Democrats don’t even want him to run again. And if he doesn’t run again, there will be no shortage of candidates. So we arrive at our seventh key to the White House.
If the incumbent party’s candidate cannot prevent the intra-party opposition from securing one third of the delegates at the party’s national convention, the primary contest key turns negative, and in favor of the challenging party. According to Lichtman, of all the Keys to the White House, this one is the most predictive, a fact which aligns well with Helmut Norpoth’s “Primary Model,” which has been right most of the time, except for the elections of 1960 and 2020 (and in 2020 it came damn close to being right).
TL;DR – it is increasingly likely that Democratic party unity will fracture and turn this most crucial of keys against them in 2024.
Additionally, there remains an elevated possibility of four more Keys to the White House turning negative in 2024.
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The “Elevated Possibly” Negative Keys
8. Strong third party candidate
There probably isn’t a single person who wants to see a Brandon vs. Trump rematch in 2024 outside of DC political grifters that need to sell the latter as either hero or villain. If such a rematch occurs, there is an elevated possibility of a strong third party challenger. When such a challenger (or challengers) have a good shot of winning 5% of the popular vote, this key will turn negative for the incumbent. It is more than plausible that such will be the case if we get the 2020 rematch scenario, which would ironically throw the election to Trump under the Keys to the White House model.
9. Weak short-term economy
I don’t know why Democrats are taking so many humiliating pains to try to redefine the word “recession.” They should be thankful their recession is happening now and not in 2024. The earlier it is, the better their chances for reelection. That the recession is happening now probably means the economy won’t shrink during the 2024 campaign, meaning that this key would be positive for the incumbent. However, this regime will not change its policies that brought on the stagflation we’ve experienced since it took office. As such, it is possible we will see a “double dip” and the economy shrinks again in 2024.
According to Lichtman, the scandal key gets turned when there is bipartisan recognition that the incumbent administration has engaged in illegal or improper acts. The impeachments of Bill Clinton and Donald Trump triggered this key for him, even though those were heavily partisan.
I don’t have much faith in it, because America has a two-tiered justice system, but as long as Hunter is around, the possibility that this key will turn negative for the incumbent remains. There is chatter that he may get indicted. If he does, the scandal key will get turned, especially if Republicans decide use the opportunity to take some revenge for the Trump impeachments (I doubt they will otherwise).
11. Major policy change
I’m unsure about this one. Though the Brandon administration has certainly changed national policy through executive action, to say the least, it as yet has no signature, broad legislative accomplishment. That may change soon, but even Joe Manchin’s deal that emerged this week is only a tenth of what the regime wanted with its “Build Back Better” bill last year. Would that qualify? We’ll see.
The “Salvation Keys”
If there’s any room for hope among this beleaguered and besieged regime, they can at least know that the remaining two Keys to the White House won’t be against them in 2024.
12. Charismatic challenger
As good as Ron DeSantis is and as much as he’s the right guy at the right time, he won’t turn this key, nor will anyone else on the horizon. It is possible someone will come out of nowhere who will, but that’s highly unlikely.
13. Social unrest
The social unrest key comes when there is widespread and sustained turbulence. This key is fortunately rare. It came in 2020 with the BLM riots, which wouldn’t have occurred without the lockdowns as a predicate. It is extremely unlikely that perfect storm will happen again. After all, some people thought the fall of Roe v. Wade would see sustained unrest and we’ve barely heard a peep.
It’s still early in the game, but the regime is in deep doo-doo, and it has no one to blame but themselves. With its stubborn insistence on appealing only to the most out of touch and hysterical demographic in the country (college educated white women who are disproportionately unmarried) and its stubborn determination to hold on to power at all costs and never admit wrong, it has made its demise far likelier.
Such is often the case in history. You can read much more about it in Lives of the Luminaries.