2022 Midterm Picks: Forth Eorlingas

(Note: This won’t age well. You need not read any further. I will do a debrief shortly, hopefully all the races will be called by then.)

After two years and eight months of chaos, mayhem, and spitefulness, the day of reckoning has finally arrived for Democrats. And indeed, it will be a reckoning. For all the hype they got four years ago, 2018 was not a true blue wave, as Democrats did well in the House, but not in the Senate or elsewhere. 2022 will be a true red wave, but how high will it go?

Persuasion Background: Setting the Mood

As I predicted they would last Christmas, Democrats cynically got off the covid train as rapidly as they got on, deescalating restrictions in February and March of this year with the same speed they put them on earlier. Unfortunately for them, it was too late. As I warned them, by failing to restore normalcy in the spring and summer of 2021, the Brandon administration failed to deliver on its one and only historical mandate. In combination with the humiliation in Afghanistan, it proved a fatal combination, and this presidency has been flailing on the mat ever since. Without knowing it, covidian Democrats had been surrounded, and retreat was now impossible.

Covid may not have been a big issue in the 2022 campaign itself, but it set the tone. People have not forgotten how their businesses were closed, their jobs were frozen or lost, their children were locked out of school, and their parents were left to die alone in obscurity, and all the while, rioters were free to rampage coast to coast.

In fact, some restrictions still remain in isolated pockets, and for those of us in blue states, they hang over us like a Sword of Damocles, capable of falling on our heads at any moment. That forces us to remember. People will vote accordingly.

Indeed, Democrats’ cynical, tyrannical covid response exacerbated the issues that are now three guns pointed at their heads:

  1. It made the economy and inflation worse than it otherwise would have been.
  2. It added to the crime wave.
  3. It made parents pay more attention to the schools, and the often insane things being done in them.

The fourth big issue Republicans ran on in this cycle was the open border, which doesn’t require much further discussion.

Republicans dominated the space of the discussion on these issues that voters were paying most attention to, while Democrats ran on abortion, Trump, January 6th, and “muh democracy.” Here is why this was ineffective:

  1. Trump is not on the ballot.
  2. Voters aren’t stupid and know January 6th was an ineffective riot by idiots, not a serious threat to “our democracy,” and didn’t Democrats encourage rioting before that anyway?
  3. “Muh democracy” is meaningless. Vagueness can be good in persuasion, but it needs to be based on a tangible benefit, such as Trump and the wall. “Muh democracy” is irrelevant to people’s lives.

As for abortion, voters remembered Democrats’ lockdown, mask, and vaccine mandates, which means they can no longer credibly claim to being the party of “my body, my choice.” And what IS a woman, anyway? For these reasons, again as I anticipated, Roe’s fall had little effect on this election. Indeed, what surprised me in the final stages is that it seems to have had an even smaller effect than I imagined it would.

So Democrats are going to get whacked. Few political parties have ever deserved it more. The question is by how much? Let’s find out.

House

The generic congressional ballot will be around R+6 and Republicans will wind up with about 245 seats. It could be a little more or less than that, but that is my median number. Republicans won’t pick up the sheer number of seats they did in 1994 or 2010, but that’s because their floor is already high. Any number over 240 closes in on the record they have held in modern times (247 I believe), and that is a number we should easily get.

Senate

The balance of power in the Senate rests at 50/50. There are five big Senate races this year that started as tossups in battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania. Republicans therefore only need to win two of those five to regain control of the Senate. In a normal midterm that is doable, and this will be far from a normal midterm, which means the upper chamber is flipping. How much will it flip? Let’s say some words about each of the individual races.

Arizona

Probably the second toughest of the big five to win. The Republican candidate, Blake Masters, was someone that I preferred on age and policy. Unfortunately he has a weakness in that he comes across as dorky and awkward, while his opponent Mark Kelly has the power of incumbency and was an astronaut that is as close to a generic Democrat as it gets .

However, when Trump isn’t on the ballot, Arizona is still a red-leaning state, and we are in a red-leaning mood to say the least. Blake Masters also has a force multiplier: Kari Lake, who has helped him and is running so strong that she should drag him across the line.

Masters +1.5

Georgia

Arguably the most interesting race of the cycle, Georgia boasts two candidates with some skeletons in their closets going at it. In most other respects, though, the race resembles Arizona’s. Georgia is still a red-leaning state without Trump on the ballot, and  the incumbent, Raphael Warnock, barely won his runoff race with all factors working in Democrats’ favor. In early voting, black turnout does not seem to be where Warnock needs it to be. Walker, like Masters, also has the benefit of a force multiplier: Brian Kemp, a popular incumbent governor who will easily win his rematch with a depleted Stacey Abrams (more on that later). Kemp will be so strong that he will drag Walker over the line and get him to the 50% mark needed to avoid a runoff in that state. If a runoff is needed, Walker will win it.

Walker +2

Nevada

Of all the new battleground states, Nevada has probably the least favorable demographics for Democrats. With its high proportion of non-college educated voters and Latinos racing rightward, it was only a matter of time before their hold on the state slipped. With the current national mood and the Reid machine weakening, that time has arrived. Adam Laxalt is as close to a generic Republican as it gets in a great year for Republicans. His opponent, Catherine Cortez-Masto is as close to a generic Democrat as it gets in a terrible year for Democrats. Nevada has some of the worst inflation in the country, more than the national average, and early voting turnout suggests that voters are about to punish the incumbent party accordingly.

Laxalt +3

New Hampshire

New Hampshire is probably the most independent-minded state in the country, which is why of the big five states that went blue in 2020, it will see the hardest rightward swing. Unfortunately for Republicans here, it probably won’t be quite enough, as of all the competitive states, it went the most blue, giving the current president about a 7 point victory.

The final polls suggest that the challenger, Republican former Brigadier General Don Bolduc, has the late momentum over his rival, incumbent Senator Maggie Hassan, but I don’t take polls too seriously. New Hampshire has escaped the worst of the crime wave. It is also just college-educated enough and Bolduc just badly-suited enough to it that Hassan will probably squeak by, which is a shame because it would mean nominating him botched us this opportunity. I hope I’m wrong. Of all the senate races, this one will probably be the closest. If it does fall into Republicans’ lap, it probably means they’re in for a historic night, so pay attention to this one as a weather vane.

Hassan +1

Pennsylvania

Along with Georgia, this is probably the most interesting race of the cycle that has gotten the most attention. It helps that Pennsylvania is now the mother of all battleground states, so whatever happens here matters a lot, nationally.

The Republican incumbent, Pat Toomey, is retiring. An unlikely candidate, Doctor Mehmet Oz of TV fame, is hoping to be his Republican successor. Amusingly, he got the Trump endorsement to win the primary solely because of his TV fame, even though the loud parts of the Trump base were skeptical about him. I was, too. Nevertheless, he has proven himself a capable campaigner. Television experience is an asset in politics.

Opposing Oz is Pennsylvania’s outgoing Lieutenant Governor, John Fetterman, who is probably the worst candidate of the cycle. Not only is he far left in a year that will prove a massacre for leftists, he also suffered a stroke in May when he wrapped his primary win up. The result is that he can’t even talk. Debates usually don’t matter in a general election, but this one did. You can see why in less than 30 seconds.

Oz has the handicap of running on the same ticket with Doug Mastriano (more on him later). That will be a drag, but not enough.

Oz +2

Final Result

Senate 2022 predictions

Republicans will win four of the big five Senate races, creating a 53/47 Senate and regaining control of the Upper Chamber. Cocaine Mitch McConnell will promptly block all of the White House’s judicial nominees and may need to prepare for impeachment proceedings against DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas and possibly Attorney General Merrick Garland.

Of the other interesting Senate races, I’ll say a few words.

Colorado: The anti-Trump Joe O’Dea is about as good of a Republican challenger as you can ask for in now-comfortably blue Colorado. However, Colorado had the benefit of Jared Polis as its governor, who was one of the few Democrats who resisted the urge to impose long, zero-covid style policies on his state. This, the comparable lack of crime, and Donald Trump’s selfish attacks on O’Dea will probably make it Bennet +5.

Florida: Former policewoman Val Demmings is probably as good of a nominee Democrats can hope for here. Unfortunately for them, Florida is no longer a battleground state and Marco Rubio is an institution who also happens to share the same ticket with its most beloved son. Early voting there suggests an extinction-level event for Democrats is on the way in the Sunshine State. Rubio +12.

North Carolina: Ted Budd is as good of a candidate as Republicans could have reasonably asked for to replace the retiring and disgraced Richard Burr. North Carolina is a battleground, but all the stars need to align for a Democrat to win statewide here. Democrats will be lucky if they get even one in alignment on Tuesday. Burr +6.

Ohio: It was laughable that anyone thought this race would be competitive. JD Vance hasn’t been a great candidate (even if I preferred him on policy), but it doesn’t matter. Ohio is no longer a battleground state. Trump won it by close to double digits under far worse circumstances. Vance +10.

Washington: Each legitimate wave year has a huge surprise or two. This is one of the races that has proven one of those surprises, with Republican challenger Tiffany Smiley seemingly running a competitive race against longtime Democratic incumbent Patty Murray. Undoubtedly, covid and crime set the table for this. Smiley probably won’t manage to get it done, but Murray won by 18 points last time. If Smiley brings this into single digits, Republicans are probably in for a hell of a night. I will say Murray +9.

Wisconsin: Ron Johnson has the advantage of incumbency in a state trending right and has the benefit of running against leftist Mandela Barnes who he has successfully tied to the crime wave that has rocked that state. Some feared he would be in danger, but not me. Johnson +5.

Governor’s Races

I will comment briefly on the most interesting governor’s races.

Arizona

I have my concerns with Kari Lake, who ran a terrible, backward-looking primary campaign and recently proved willing to humiliate herself by vacuuming Trump’s carpet. Nevertheless, she has done a 180 and has run a stellar general election campaign. Her experience in television, like Oz’s, has clearly paid off, and if she governs well, will have established herself as one of the biggest rising stars in the party. She will win comfortably and drag Blake Masters over the line. Lake +5.

Florida

Ron DeSantis won by less than 40,000 votes four years ago. That will not be the case this time. The questionable Trumpy imitator of 2018 has since established himself as Refined Florida Man: the biggest star in the Republican Party and the triumphant victor of the covid war. Voters are going to reward him for it in a big way, as the early returns suggest that Florida will be ground zero for Democratic woes on Tuesday. Expect DeSantis’ victory speech to be an only slightly subtle hint that he’s coming for the biggest title in 2024. DeSantis +15.

Georgia

Another questionable Trump imitator of four years ago has since established himself as a powerful and popular incumbent. He does not have the national bona fides of his counterpart to the south, but actually began reopening his state earlier, despite Trump’s protest. His fights with Trump and Major League Baseball further strengthened his hold on Republican and independent voters here. Stacey Abrams, by contrast, is clearly past her prime as a candidate. Kemp +7.

Michigan

Few people deserve to go down more than Gretchen Whitmer, one of the worst covidian tyrants in the country, who banned people from buying certain items in stores that were open at the height of the pandemic because … “public health.” The problem is that the Republican Party in Michigan is completely incompetent, and blew its best chance by failing to secure former Detroit Police Chief James Craig’s name on the ballot. As a result, they have a much weaker candidate, Tudor Dixon. Whitmer won by 10 points in 2018. Early voting in Detroit doesn’t look great for her, which is a positive sign for Dixon. However, thanks to Craig, that city avoided the widespread riots seen elsewhere, so Whitmer may not get dragged down as much by crime. I am rooting hard for Dixon, but as of now, need to say Whitmer +2.

Minnesota

Like Whitmer, few deserve to lose more this year than Tim Waltz, the covidian tyrant in Minnesota who spread a different kind of contagion by being derelict in his duty to stop the initial BLM riot in Minneapolis in 2020. Unfortunately, if there’s one thing we’ve learned since March 2020, it’s that Aristotle’s natural slaves are a real class of people, and Minnesota seems to have enough of them to keep him in office despite his sins. Waltz +3.

Nevada

Incumbent governor Steve Sisolak was one of the first to reimpose covid restrictions in the summer of 2021, on top of his onerous restrictions the year before. He is going to pay for it now, as the red wave will not only carry Adam Laxalt to the Senate, but Joe Lombardo to the governor’s mansion. The covidian regime in Nevada will thus rightly be destroyed. Lombardo +4.

New York

The surprisingly competitive race of the cycle. However, it isn’t entirely a surprise to me. To my knowledge, I was the first to say that incumbent Kathy Hochul is vulnerable, doing so as early as this winter.

New York had some of the worst covid restrictions in the country, with children only unmasking as late as June. Parents remember and remember well. New York has also seen the worst of the crime wave, with some of the highest increases in the nation. Kathy Hochul has handled the issue terribly and has stubbornly stuck by her covid decisions, implying they could return at any time. She has also proven to be one of the worst political talents I’ve ever seen, with no enthusiasm in New York City for her campaign.

Her opponent, Lee Zeldin, has proven a more than competent campaigner, with him gathering strength at every league. You could not ask for better early voting numbers if you were in his position. Pay attention to Rockland County in particular. If it flips red, Zeldin has a path, and Republicans will probably have a great night nationally.

All of the intangibles in this race tell me that Hochul should lose. Especially telling was the President’s visit to deep blue Westchester County this weekend to try to shore her up, following on the heels of Bill and Hillary Clinton’s events in New York City. Meanwhile, Glenn Youngkin showed up in Westchester a week ago and Ron DeSantis came to Suffolk County last weekend to help Zeldin. It also seems likely that the disgraced Andrew Cuomo wants a comeback and is silently using his machine to boost Zeldin.

However, I will go down on the SS Hochul only due to the sheer number of Democrats in this state, which make up about 49% of the electorate. Hochul +6.

Kansas

One of the upsets in 2018 was Laura Kelly’s victory in normally deep red Kansas. Logic would indicate that she should go down easily this year. However, she has run one of the few competent Democratic campaigns this cycle. Kelly +1.

Oregon

This is one of the races that could prove one of those unexpected upsets you see in a wave year. The outgoing governor, Kate Brown, led one of the most draconian covid regimes in the country and as a result is widely hated even there. Meanwhile, her last win was only by seven points in the D+8 environment of 2018. Oregon has also seen some of the worst of the crime wave, with riots in Portland becoming a stock theme. There is also a spoiler, Betsy Johnson, running as an independent, while the Republican candidate Christine Drazan has heavily focused on schools. This will be one of my bolder predictions: the covidian regime in Oregon will get wiped out tomorrow night. Drazan +1.

Pennsylvania

This race will go down as the biggest miss for Republicans of the cycle. Any other candidate would have easily won, but the Republican base decided to nominate the legitimate Q-Anon nutjob Doug Mastriano, who has no money, has hired a terrible campaign staff (including the infamously bad Jenna Ellis), and thought it was a good idea to campaign with the popular Twitter troll Jack Posobiec in Bucks County, one of the most important swing counties in the country. As a result, current Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro will run away with it while Mastriano acts as a drag on Oz and the covidian regime survives in the Keystone State. This election is a clear warning for Republicans in 2024. Shapiro +8.

Wisconsin

Wisconsin has been governed by the covidian tyrant Tony Evers since 2018. Like his counterpart in neighboring Minnesota, Evers failed to lift a finger to stop the riots in Kenosha during the “Summer of Love.” Unlike Minnesota, though, Wisconsin is a legitimate swing state. Tim Michels isn’t a bad nominee, despite some primary controversy, and he will have the benefit of running with Ron Johnson. The covidian regime will thus meet its rightful destruction here. Michels +2.

2022 governor predictions

Conclusion

It should be a good night for Republicans, with potential to be historically good. It is entirely possible I’m underestimating some things here, and hope that I am. The population is ready to retaliate for the failures, spitefulness, and elitism the Democrats have shown since March 2020, and with Trump off the ballot, there is nothing stopping that from happening, no emotional obstacle getting in the way of some voters that want to vote against it. Again, that is another lesson for 2024.

Fundamentally, this retaliation is not against a political party. It is rather against a transgressive, deeply anti-human ideology that has fully captured one of America’s major parties.

Almost a decade ago, during the early days of the quasi-religious awakening of this ideology, my friend Quintus Curtius said it means to strip us of “our dignity, our livelihood, and our identity.” But it means to do more than that. It means to strip us of the best parts of our nature and the joys of simply being human, seeking to convert us into data for a post-human system, with Chinese style social credit as a potential control model. Something similar to this is a theme (though not an allegorical one) of the big stories in my science fiction universe. You can find a prequel to that story in The Fall of the Fated Queen over here at Patreon with a free chapter.

This ideology has besieged us for two years. Tomorrow, we will ride out and meet it. There lies the glory.

See more on Glory in Lives of the Luminaries.

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